Thursday, 8 June 2017
USA: Comey calls Trump’s requests on Russia investigations ‘very disturb...
An unprecedented public hearing of a Senate Select Committee investigating the Russian link in the 2016 United States Presidential election.
In what could be the most momentous unprecedented event, not only is an impeachment process is formulated against the present United States President. An implication against the 45th United States President, will not only mean an impeachment, but, more seriously still, is the charge of espionage which will carry an even more serious indictment against the POTUS which means, if proven without any reasonable doubt, will result in a federal offence, for spying, which is a mandatory federal imprisonment offence.
Within six months of the present POTUS he has left a whirlwind impact upon the world. A very powerful influence which may, in many respects, be considered as unbridled hegemonic power by a seemingly unfettered POTUS tour de force,
Sunday, 4 June 2017
London terrorism leading up to the British election during the Muslim month of Ramadan. By Tim Tufuga
(BBC)With the British general election this week coinciding with the Muslim Ramadan holy month, it would not surprise political strategists to contrive an ultra reactionary propaganda strategy heading into the election.
The loser are the minorities and a tolerant multicultural society. The catalyst for this hatred unfortunately is indeed the Islamic religion and the segregationalism with a cultural caliphate culture which is not integrative but segregationalist at best and violently intrusive
This act of terrorism has only gave the reactionary political parties, the just cause for steering an election vote towards the ultra reactionary victory. The reactionary vote within the British Labour Party and the traditional Conservative parties may argue their own versions for a xenophobic Britain.
Islamic Jihadism has only succeeded in serving the political ultra right wing to defeat multiculturalism. Enoch Powell's foreboding warning of the river Tiber awash with the blood of racial hatred has been justified with the acts of terrorism by instruments of hatred by both the ultra right political parties and extremist religious terrorists. The winner in this age of global terrorism is the ultra rightwing xenophobic political parties.
By Tim Tufuga
Source:
BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40148737
ninmsn.com, http://www.9news.com.au/world/2017/06/04/07/30/vehicle-ploughs-into-people-on-london-bridge-reports
Friday, 2 June 2017
President Trump pulls out of the Paris Global Warming Accord. By Tim B Tufuga
When the Hegemon decides to turn the Global Warming Weltgeist on its head and leaving the Global Warming science to simply being a groupthink fiasco. The global community will continue without the Hegemon like an organism without a head. It will continue to function but without the most powerful nation in the mix, the global community will falter and the world will truly realise how a non-American participation will be likened to a global organisation functioning without a head. It will work still but people will look askance at America for some support.
(google search)
As a political Hegemon President Trump has truly shown his true grit by not being a follower in a crowd. He hasn't lost fans in this non-Statesmanlike foray in global politics, in fact, quite on the contrary, the President has gained support from an ochlocratic base from the hoi polloi who has welcomed true leadership from an American President who leads from the front and would not kowtow to a global weltgeist even if science, media and world entertainment, like a Roland Emmerich natural disaster movie can hope to influence the hearts and minds of the world. From this point alone, I too have warmed up to Trump's international arrogance from this standpoint.
As for his domestic troubles, well, this will only add fuel to the fire. His volatility at such a short period of his presidency has been frenetic and this President is certainly a President like no other. He has been a unique manifestation of America that a spaghetti westerns would only emulate as an all conquering American gunslinger getting down and dirty at high noon against all challengers. Yes, this includes each respective world leader across the way.
By Tim Brian Tufuga
Source:
Shear, M, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html?smid=fb-share, 2nd June, 2017.
(google search)As a political Hegemon President Trump has truly shown his true grit by not being a follower in a crowd. He hasn't lost fans in this non-Statesmanlike foray in global politics, in fact, quite on the contrary, the President has gained support from an ochlocratic base from the hoi polloi who has welcomed true leadership from an American President who leads from the front and would not kowtow to a global weltgeist even if science, media and world entertainment, like a Roland Emmerich natural disaster movie can hope to influence the hearts and minds of the world. From this point alone, I too have warmed up to Trump's international arrogance from this standpoint.
As for his domestic troubles, well, this will only add fuel to the fire. His volatility at such a short period of his presidency has been frenetic and this President is certainly a President like no other. He has been a unique manifestation of America that a spaghetti westerns would only emulate as an all conquering American gunslinger getting down and dirty at high noon against all challengers. Yes, this includes each respective world leader across the way.
By Tim Brian Tufuga
Source:
Shear, M, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html?smid=fb-share, 2nd June, 2017.
Monday, 8 May 2017
The Venezuelan Oil crisis, from the Bolivarian Missions, to PVDSA demurrage, to a Maduro dictatorship. By Tim Tufuga
The Venezuelan crisis has come to a peak with the deaths of many anti-government protesters in Caracas, Venezuela, in the past week, or so. Whilst, blame may be directly pointed at the Nicolas Madura government,(1) the simmering crisis had long ago germinated from the over reliance upon the one commodity economy of Venezuela which is oil.
The obvious myriad of causes maybe many and varied, but, for all intents and purposes of this blog, the significant influencing factor for why the Venezuelan crisis is what it is at the moment is blamed indirectly, at least, to oil. Venezuelan economic fortunes has been determined almost entirely upon the buoyancy of the oil industry and its continual largesse redistributed throughout the nation.
Bolivarian Missions.(2)
Added to the one commodity economy of Venezuela is the lack of domestic macroeconomic, and microeconomic, wherewithal, in the maintaning and sustaining the augmented programs of the seemingly altruistic Chavezist Socialist Utopian program, as realised through the Bolivarian missions. The maintenance of the Chavez social reforms agenda had been dismissively as ideologically utopian with only a short term benefit at best. The Venezuelan masses, in which the programs were meant to invigorate social reforms and to elevate the masses from poverty, had relied almost entirely upon the re-distributional largesse from the oil profits by the State owned Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A (PDVSA),(3) or The Petroleum of Venezuela. With an estimated asset value of $231.1 Billion (2013) the PDVSA has become the piggy bank of the State in drawing on infrastructural socio-economic development for the Venezuelan nation. This largesse was considered more of a hand out, rather than a hand up, in terms of actual community development, of social-economic development, educational, health, housing and infrastructural improvements, culminating in business investment stimulation. The Bolivarian missions in the very short time they were initiated became a Socialist Utopian Overreach. The Superstructural ideal could not be articulated pragmatically within the operational and implementation stage at the grass roots, infrastructural and logistical, level of Venezuelan society. The overarching praxis problem with the implementation of such a grandiose vision was simply in the scope and reach, it was by far too complicated, and too sophisticated, of a program, to be implemented competently, and completely, within a very short period of time. One can not implement drastic social changes within one generation. The Bolivarian Missions with all its grand design would only succeed through a gradual process which requires time and a cultural immersion which is intergenerational and requires a solid funding from government. Government in turn had relied on a singular source, Oil, from PVDSA. Herein, lies the rub of the Venezuelan problem.
(Hugo Chavez) (wikipedia.com)
In recent events, impacting Oil producers particularly from the Middle East region, has presented to the world the fragility of energy security which would impact directly upon National Security matters directly. Perhaps, the most significant impact upon National Security as far as the Western World attention is concerned would be impacted by the felling of the World Trade Centre by two hijacked commercial airplanes on September 11, 2001. The world realised how oil producing regions in exotic distant cultures whose cultural values differed remarkably from Western values would adversely affect cultural sensitivities. In this narrative, Islamic Jihadism had challenged the Occidental world directly for their purported negative impact upon their cultural values inadvertently through the purported exploitative impact of exploitative extraction of conventional oil reserves from their soils. A focus on energy security has become a primary focus for National Security for the world and oil was the primary commodity for certain nations and cultures were able to hold the world to ransom.
The oil price re-set since 2008.(4)
The price of oil had plummeted from its peak at $147 per barrel, back in July 11, 2008, to falling below $30, by February, 2016.
The futures market has determined the bear market influence upon the price of oil. In doing so, it has served a two fold purpose, firstly, to allow for the conventional oil producers such as OPEC member nations, to divest futures market speculators from investing in tight oil producers, like America. A timely divestment in American tight oil will, after an initial peak period of tight oil mass production, and with the global price of oil dramatically plummeting and would plateau in both domestic production and global export of tight oil, especially American tight oil production, within a decade or so. Also, as a psychological warfare political strategy by OPEC and in particular Middle Eastern Islamic cultures, is the desired adverse effects, and affects, of tight oil investment as an microeconomic White Elephant within the American socio-economic and political landscape at domestic level. Once again, as a National Security perspective, oil is the overarching weapon of choice by anti-Occidental elements.
Venezuela, is a member of the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC), 65% of Venezuelan oil is exported to the United States of America. Under the Hugo Chavez socialist government the re-nationalisation of the Venezuelan oil industry back in 1976, the PDVSA had reaped immediate short term benefit for the populist needs of the masses. The social welfare programs such as the Bolivarian missions would serve to realise the egalitarian social justice ideal of the Chavezism. The PDVSA was tapped into time and time again as the State's Piggy Bank in providing for these egalitarian programs.
However, the intricacies on international economic foreign trade, and oil is a primary commodity understood by all nations, is one commodity in which an autarky Socialist government can not hope to survive in without interacting with the free market system. The export of oil, as a commodity, for the economic development, wealth generation, maintenance, sustainability and the survival of a nation. The problem then with Chavezism was the singularly over reliance upon oil for everything for wealth generation and the re-distribution of that wealth altruistically without reinvesting into augmented economic stimuli or at least, to assuage a Occidental world of the egalitarianism of Chavezism. A formula, in which Chavez and his successor, Nicolas Madura would inherit. A Socialist Chavez Autarky would suffer the isolationism from even the cooperation from Venezuelan customers for PDVSA supplied oil. PDVSA was unable to afford to even clean up their own vessels in basic operational systemic failures. To add further angst, PDVSA was unable to hasten demurrage port charges in order for the customer to receive their Venezuelan supplied oil, simply because the Venzuelan government could not afford immediate payments. It was a catch 22 situation, much to the chagrine of a very unpopular Madura government.
(US Energy Information Administration) (5)
Therefore, at present, the depreciation of the global oil price, is considered a preemptive measure by the OPEC member futures investors, sourced no doubt by OPEC member nations, in anticipation for futures market divestment in tight oil. The formulae seemed to be a simple equation, an average cost of conventional oil production is relatively half that of the cost of tight oil production (Shale Oil).
Whilst Saudi Arabia may have welcomed the immediate bear market impact upon the oil market, as a counter measure to American tight oil production. The rippling effect and affect with the short term downturn would undermine the fledgling tight oil producers, primarily the Americans within the oil market. (6)
The psychological warfare of energy security would be fought out in the stock market and in particular within the futures market with oil price speculation led to the reset of the oil price in which, simply put, would simply fall well below the production cost for a barrel of tight oil.
In prolonging this suppression of oil price, it would eventually lead to a breaking point for the producers of tight oil, and, in particular, to adversely impact upon the United States of America, which, at present, has been confirmed as having the world's largest reserves of tight oil (Shale oil) in the world.
The real impact of the psychological warfare on energy security, and, inadvertently, upon the National Security strategies of nations?
The tight oil phenomena, despite the dismissive gestures from OPEC members, has a rippling influence upon oil dependent economies. Venezuela, obviously, has revealed its true economic fragility with having to rely almost completely upon oil and subsequently upon the speculative trends of the futures market.
(wikipedia.com)
In conclusion.
Oil has become a significant raison d'état for wanting to ensure Energy security for nations. Venezuela is a highly valued oil supplier for the Americans and a Socialist government whilst it may serve an egalitarian ideological agenda for a just society, may, in turn, create economic and political ideological rifts. A government which lacks the wherewithal with not only with the provision of egalitarian social justice reforms for the entire population, but, to be able to have an efficacious rapport with your trading partners as well. Such a significant lesson of not biting the hand that feeds you may bode well for the Venezuelan Socialist government when dealing with their purported Capitalist customers. The oil PVDSA owned and leased oil cargo tankers, for example, have been prevented from docking and offloading their precious cargo in ports throughout America and Europe, which have to do with strict environmental impact quarantine procedures. The crude oil leaks and environmental health and safety impact failures have delayed cargo ships from docking and offloading. The delays, in docking, in turn, have resulted in demurrage penalties which the PDVSA and the Venezuelan government can not afford to pay.(7) The precious cargo is stranded offshore and the PDVSA are left broke and bankrupt unable to pay for their vessels to port. The ripple effect is obvious. The depreciation in the price of oil, the inability to export oil to customers, and the country in economic crisis has adversely affected the Chavez legacy which has been bequeathed to the Madura administration, in 2017.
The culmination of these contingent causal effects have brought us to the present crisis in Venezuela.
Tim Tufuga
1. Nicolas Madura elections, CBC.Ca, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-elections-suspended-1.4036425
2. Bolivarian Missions, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivarian_missions
3. The PDVSA, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDVSA
4. The price of oil, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil
5. American tight oil, Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29932#
6. American shale oil versus conventional oil, investopedia.com, http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/051215/cost-shale-oil-versus-conventional-oil.asp
7. Banned at Sea , Parraga, M and Guanipa M, http://www.businessinsider.com/r-banned-at-sea-venezuelas-crude-stained-oil-tankers-2017-4/?r=AU&IR=T, April 18, 2017.
The obvious myriad of causes maybe many and varied, but, for all intents and purposes of this blog, the significant influencing factor for why the Venezuelan crisis is what it is at the moment is blamed indirectly, at least, to oil. Venezuelan economic fortunes has been determined almost entirely upon the buoyancy of the oil industry and its continual largesse redistributed throughout the nation.
Bolivarian Missions.(2)
Added to the one commodity economy of Venezuela is the lack of domestic macroeconomic, and microeconomic, wherewithal, in the maintaning and sustaining the augmented programs of the seemingly altruistic Chavezist Socialist Utopian program, as realised through the Bolivarian missions. The maintenance of the Chavez social reforms agenda had been dismissively as ideologically utopian with only a short term benefit at best. The Venezuelan masses, in which the programs were meant to invigorate social reforms and to elevate the masses from poverty, had relied almost entirely upon the re-distributional largesse from the oil profits by the State owned Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A (PDVSA),(3) or The Petroleum of Venezuela. With an estimated asset value of $231.1 Billion (2013) the PDVSA has become the piggy bank of the State in drawing on infrastructural socio-economic development for the Venezuelan nation. This largesse was considered more of a hand out, rather than a hand up, in terms of actual community development, of social-economic development, educational, health, housing and infrastructural improvements, culminating in business investment stimulation. The Bolivarian missions in the very short time they were initiated became a Socialist Utopian Overreach. The Superstructural ideal could not be articulated pragmatically within the operational and implementation stage at the grass roots, infrastructural and logistical, level of Venezuelan society. The overarching praxis problem with the implementation of such a grandiose vision was simply in the scope and reach, it was by far too complicated, and too sophisticated, of a program, to be implemented competently, and completely, within a very short period of time. One can not implement drastic social changes within one generation. The Bolivarian Missions with all its grand design would only succeed through a gradual process which requires time and a cultural immersion which is intergenerational and requires a solid funding from government. Government in turn had relied on a singular source, Oil, from PVDSA. Herein, lies the rub of the Venezuelan problem.
(Hugo Chavez) (wikipedia.com)In recent events, impacting Oil producers particularly from the Middle East region, has presented to the world the fragility of energy security which would impact directly upon National Security matters directly. Perhaps, the most significant impact upon National Security as far as the Western World attention is concerned would be impacted by the felling of the World Trade Centre by two hijacked commercial airplanes on September 11, 2001. The world realised how oil producing regions in exotic distant cultures whose cultural values differed remarkably from Western values would adversely affect cultural sensitivities. In this narrative, Islamic Jihadism had challenged the Occidental world directly for their purported negative impact upon their cultural values inadvertently through the purported exploitative impact of exploitative extraction of conventional oil reserves from their soils. A focus on energy security has become a primary focus for National Security for the world and oil was the primary commodity for certain nations and cultures were able to hold the world to ransom.
The oil price re-set since 2008.(4)
The price of oil had plummeted from its peak at $147 per barrel, back in July 11, 2008, to falling below $30, by February, 2016.
The futures market has determined the bear market influence upon the price of oil. In doing so, it has served a two fold purpose, firstly, to allow for the conventional oil producers such as OPEC member nations, to divest futures market speculators from investing in tight oil producers, like America. A timely divestment in American tight oil will, after an initial peak period of tight oil mass production, and with the global price of oil dramatically plummeting and would plateau in both domestic production and global export of tight oil, especially American tight oil production, within a decade or so. Also, as a psychological warfare political strategy by OPEC and in particular Middle Eastern Islamic cultures, is the desired adverse effects, and affects, of tight oil investment as an microeconomic White Elephant within the American socio-economic and political landscape at domestic level. Once again, as a National Security perspective, oil is the overarching weapon of choice by anti-Occidental elements.
Venezuela, is a member of the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC), 65% of Venezuelan oil is exported to the United States of America. Under the Hugo Chavez socialist government the re-nationalisation of the Venezuelan oil industry back in 1976, the PDVSA had reaped immediate short term benefit for the populist needs of the masses. The social welfare programs such as the Bolivarian missions would serve to realise the egalitarian social justice ideal of the Chavezism. The PDVSA was tapped into time and time again as the State's Piggy Bank in providing for these egalitarian programs.
However, the intricacies on international economic foreign trade, and oil is a primary commodity understood by all nations, is one commodity in which an autarky Socialist government can not hope to survive in without interacting with the free market system. The export of oil, as a commodity, for the economic development, wealth generation, maintenance, sustainability and the survival of a nation. The problem then with Chavezism was the singularly over reliance upon oil for everything for wealth generation and the re-distribution of that wealth altruistically without reinvesting into augmented economic stimuli or at least, to assuage a Occidental world of the egalitarianism of Chavezism. A formula, in which Chavez and his successor, Nicolas Madura would inherit. A Socialist Chavez Autarky would suffer the isolationism from even the cooperation from Venezuelan customers for PDVSA supplied oil. PDVSA was unable to afford to even clean up their own vessels in basic operational systemic failures. To add further angst, PDVSA was unable to hasten demurrage port charges in order for the customer to receive their Venezuelan supplied oil, simply because the Venzuelan government could not afford immediate payments. It was a catch 22 situation, much to the chagrine of a very unpopular Madura government.
(US Energy Information Administration) (5)Therefore, at present, the depreciation of the global oil price, is considered a preemptive measure by the OPEC member futures investors, sourced no doubt by OPEC member nations, in anticipation for futures market divestment in tight oil. The formulae seemed to be a simple equation, an average cost of conventional oil production is relatively half that of the cost of tight oil production (Shale Oil).
Whilst Saudi Arabia may have welcomed the immediate bear market impact upon the oil market, as a counter measure to American tight oil production. The rippling effect and affect with the short term downturn would undermine the fledgling tight oil producers, primarily the Americans within the oil market. (6)
The psychological warfare of energy security would be fought out in the stock market and in particular within the futures market with oil price speculation led to the reset of the oil price in which, simply put, would simply fall well below the production cost for a barrel of tight oil.
In prolonging this suppression of oil price, it would eventually lead to a breaking point for the producers of tight oil, and, in particular, to adversely impact upon the United States of America, which, at present, has been confirmed as having the world's largest reserves of tight oil (Shale oil) in the world.
The real impact of the psychological warfare on energy security, and, inadvertently, upon the National Security strategies of nations?
The tight oil phenomena, despite the dismissive gestures from OPEC members, has a rippling influence upon oil dependent economies. Venezuela, obviously, has revealed its true economic fragility with having to rely almost completely upon oil and subsequently upon the speculative trends of the futures market.
(wikipedia.com)In conclusion.
Oil has become a significant raison d'état for wanting to ensure Energy security for nations. Venezuela is a highly valued oil supplier for the Americans and a Socialist government whilst it may serve an egalitarian ideological agenda for a just society, may, in turn, create economic and political ideological rifts. A government which lacks the wherewithal with not only with the provision of egalitarian social justice reforms for the entire population, but, to be able to have an efficacious rapport with your trading partners as well. Such a significant lesson of not biting the hand that feeds you may bode well for the Venezuelan Socialist government when dealing with their purported Capitalist customers. The oil PVDSA owned and leased oil cargo tankers, for example, have been prevented from docking and offloading their precious cargo in ports throughout America and Europe, which have to do with strict environmental impact quarantine procedures. The crude oil leaks and environmental health and safety impact failures have delayed cargo ships from docking and offloading. The delays, in docking, in turn, have resulted in demurrage penalties which the PDVSA and the Venezuelan government can not afford to pay.(7) The precious cargo is stranded offshore and the PDVSA are left broke and bankrupt unable to pay for their vessels to port. The ripple effect is obvious. The depreciation in the price of oil, the inability to export oil to customers, and the country in economic crisis has adversely affected the Chavez legacy which has been bequeathed to the Madura administration, in 2017.
The culmination of these contingent causal effects have brought us to the present crisis in Venezuela.
Tim Tufuga
1. Nicolas Madura elections, CBC.Ca, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-elections-suspended-1.4036425
2. Bolivarian Missions, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivarian_missions
3. The PDVSA, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDVSA
4. The price of oil, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil
5. American tight oil, Energy Information Administration, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29932#
6. American shale oil versus conventional oil, investopedia.com, http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/051215/cost-shale-oil-versus-conventional-oil.asp
7. Banned at Sea , Parraga, M and Guanipa M, http://www.businessinsider.com/r-banned-at-sea-venezuelas-crude-stained-oil-tankers-2017-4/?r=AU&IR=T, April 18, 2017.
Thursday, 6 April 2017
United States declares war on the Assad Syrian Regime.
America has officially been at peace since the end of Operation Enduring Freedom back in 2010. President Barack Obama's administration had delivered in his promise to end the war in the Middle East and to recall the troops.
On the 6th April, 2017, (1) the President Trump has been in power for less than three months and has already returned the American military machine back into Defcon 5(2) with imminent direct contact with not only the Assad Military machine but more importantly a proxy conflict with Russia.
(Al Jazeera)
The Cassus Belli for this mobilisation and Tomahawk missile strike upon strategic and tactical military and infrastructural targets within Syria has resulted from the purported Sarin Nerve agent chemical bombing of Idlib, Syria on the 5th April, 2017 (3).
Geo-politically, the Levant region has been engage in direct conflict for most of the post-2010 de-militarisation of the United States of America war machine. The burden of conducting yet another Middle Eastern conflict for the American nation will undoubtedly fall upon the American people and America's immediate military allies.
Strategically, from an American perspective, the inclusion of the American involvement within the Syrian sectarian conflict, unlike the Afghanistan and Iraqi conflicts, is the most important variable, the Syrian conflict will now expand the Levant conflict towards a direct confrontation between the most prominent hard powers of Russia and the United States of America.
From a Assad and sectarian domestic perspective, the American involvement in the Syrian conflict may influence the local Syrian and the collective Arab and Islamic resentment of the American Devil and the Zionist enemy due South West coming into direct conflict and in thus the Shia and Hezbollah may find a change of focus by the sectarian conflict with the Sunni, and to re-focus the Syrians in a new common enemy and to re-engage the Syrian Nationalism fervour by the Syrian Nation having to engage the traditional enemy directly.
Syrian nationalism may disengage the domestic sectarian conflict and to re-engage the Syrians on the Golan Heights, and again with Israel and America collectively in a more visceral Islamic Jihad.
Conversely, in the meantime, the United States Strategists, may, in turn, view the opportune moment to purge the Shia minority stranglehold upon the Syrian power elites, via the Shia Alawites, and diffused outwardly to the Sunni majority of the Syrian population. The back to square one of the crux of the Syrian conflict has been focused upon the Syrian sectarian power base which had been hitherto been focused upon the Shia, Alawite, minority who have shored up all the centralised power of the Syrian social and political elite. The Syrian population is predominately Sunni and the primary focus of the military strikes within Syria has been on Sunni dominated areas of the Syrian geo-political and sectarian demography.
The fork in the road for the Syrian conflict is how will the American and Russian role in this conflict will pan out.
One the one hand, the Sunni may sleep with the Devil and enjoin the Americans and Syrian Rebels in ousting the Assad regime outright and in the process to realise the Islamic State grand desire in the long run which is to purge the Levant of the Shia outright.
Alternately, and second, the Syrian Sunni may enjoin the Shia regime and enjoin a Syrian Nationalism movement in purging the traditional enemy of the Israelis and the Americans. In which case, the Assad regime may be viewed as the xenophobic Martyr as a Syrian Nationalist. This perspective will venerate the Assad regime as the defender of the Syrian Nation.
Thirdly, the Assad regime may be toppled and in place a Sunni dominated regime be inserted that will be anti-Iran and more reticent towards Kurdish secessionism.
Finally, the Islamic State may lose their domestic source of recruitment with many Sunni enjoining the Syrian Sunni Rebels, in purging the Alawaite, Shia regime, the Hezbollah, and the Iranian military and material logistical support, in the overall ideological and strategic Sunni Caliphate in the Levant region.
In turn, the Kurdish question as the third factor in the current paroxysms within the Levant may be considered a root probable cause for the domestic troubles which had been simmmering since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. The ultimate wicked problem of the Kurdish self determination has been put in the too hard basket for the present moment. Ultimately, the Kurdish Nationalism question will rear its head again long after the demise of the Assad regime.
The main influencing factor in this conflict is President Putin and the ball is now on his court.
In the meantime, with the imminent Russian contact, this may be considered as being more likely, more so than the Cuban crisis in 1963.
The cordial relationship between President Putin and President Trump will be tested. Paradoxically, the Putin regime had supported President Trump's election victory almost directly due to President Trump's foreign policy announcement prior to the 2016 Presidential election.
In April, 2017. things have changed and over 50 tomahawk missiles landing of various Syrian targets is a testament of the fluidity of foreign policy in a realpolitical world order whereby ideological mainstay are not as concrete as a black and white, good and bad, dichotomous world view.
By Tim Tufuga
Source:
1. Al Jazeera, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/us-missiles-syria-170407013424492.html, 6th April, 2017.
2. Defcon, http://defconwarningsystem.com/2017/04/07/syria-event/, April, 6th, 2017.
3. BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39500947, April, 6th, 2017.
On the 6th April, 2017, (1) the President Trump has been in power for less than three months and has already returned the American military machine back into Defcon 5(2) with imminent direct contact with not only the Assad Military machine but more importantly a proxy conflict with Russia.
(Al Jazeera)The Cassus Belli for this mobilisation and Tomahawk missile strike upon strategic and tactical military and infrastructural targets within Syria has resulted from the purported Sarin Nerve agent chemical bombing of Idlib, Syria on the 5th April, 2017 (3).
Geo-politically, the Levant region has been engage in direct conflict for most of the post-2010 de-militarisation of the United States of America war machine. The burden of conducting yet another Middle Eastern conflict for the American nation will undoubtedly fall upon the American people and America's immediate military allies.
Strategically, from an American perspective, the inclusion of the American involvement within the Syrian sectarian conflict, unlike the Afghanistan and Iraqi conflicts, is the most important variable, the Syrian conflict will now expand the Levant conflict towards a direct confrontation between the most prominent hard powers of Russia and the United States of America.
From a Assad and sectarian domestic perspective, the American involvement in the Syrian conflict may influence the local Syrian and the collective Arab and Islamic resentment of the American Devil and the Zionist enemy due South West coming into direct conflict and in thus the Shia and Hezbollah may find a change of focus by the sectarian conflict with the Sunni, and to re-focus the Syrians in a new common enemy and to re-engage the Syrian Nationalism fervour by the Syrian Nation having to engage the traditional enemy directly.
Syrian nationalism may disengage the domestic sectarian conflict and to re-engage the Syrians on the Golan Heights, and again with Israel and America collectively in a more visceral Islamic Jihad.
Conversely, in the meantime, the United States Strategists, may, in turn, view the opportune moment to purge the Shia minority stranglehold upon the Syrian power elites, via the Shia Alawites, and diffused outwardly to the Sunni majority of the Syrian population. The back to square one of the crux of the Syrian conflict has been focused upon the Syrian sectarian power base which had been hitherto been focused upon the Shia, Alawite, minority who have shored up all the centralised power of the Syrian social and political elite. The Syrian population is predominately Sunni and the primary focus of the military strikes within Syria has been on Sunni dominated areas of the Syrian geo-political and sectarian demography.
The fork in the road for the Syrian conflict is how will the American and Russian role in this conflict will pan out.
One the one hand, the Sunni may sleep with the Devil and enjoin the Americans and Syrian Rebels in ousting the Assad regime outright and in the process to realise the Islamic State grand desire in the long run which is to purge the Levant of the Shia outright.
Alternately, and second, the Syrian Sunni may enjoin the Shia regime and enjoin a Syrian Nationalism movement in purging the traditional enemy of the Israelis and the Americans. In which case, the Assad regime may be viewed as the xenophobic Martyr as a Syrian Nationalist. This perspective will venerate the Assad regime as the defender of the Syrian Nation.
Thirdly, the Assad regime may be toppled and in place a Sunni dominated regime be inserted that will be anti-Iran and more reticent towards Kurdish secessionism.
Finally, the Islamic State may lose their domestic source of recruitment with many Sunni enjoining the Syrian Sunni Rebels, in purging the Alawaite, Shia regime, the Hezbollah, and the Iranian military and material logistical support, in the overall ideological and strategic Sunni Caliphate in the Levant region.
In turn, the Kurdish question as the third factor in the current paroxysms within the Levant may be considered a root probable cause for the domestic troubles which had been simmmering since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918. The ultimate wicked problem of the Kurdish self determination has been put in the too hard basket for the present moment. Ultimately, the Kurdish Nationalism question will rear its head again long after the demise of the Assad regime.
The main influencing factor in this conflict is President Putin and the ball is now on his court.
In the meantime, with the imminent Russian contact, this may be considered as being more likely, more so than the Cuban crisis in 1963.
The cordial relationship between President Putin and President Trump will be tested. Paradoxically, the Putin regime had supported President Trump's election victory almost directly due to President Trump's foreign policy announcement prior to the 2016 Presidential election.
In April, 2017. things have changed and over 50 tomahawk missiles landing of various Syrian targets is a testament of the fluidity of foreign policy in a realpolitical world order whereby ideological mainstay are not as concrete as a black and white, good and bad, dichotomous world view.
By Tim Tufuga
Source:
1. Al Jazeera, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/us-missiles-syria-170407013424492.html, 6th April, 2017.
2. Defcon, http://defconwarningsystem.com/2017/04/07/syria-event/, April, 6th, 2017.
3. BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39500947, April, 6th, 2017.
Sunday, 19 March 2017
The Turkish Constitutional Referendum the harbinger for Pan-Turkish Ottomanism and anti-Laicism. By Tim Tufuga
The nation of Turkey will be having a very important constitutional referendum scheduled for the 16th April, 2017. The Turkish Constitutional referendum will restructure the very fabric of the Turkish political system with the abolition of the office of the Prime Minister and the increase of the executive Presidential powers which would also include the extension of the tenure of office for an elected government. Electoral reforms would increase the four year tenure to five years. The Turkish parliamentary membership will increase from the present 550 to 600, although, the executive will be tightened to a Presidential inner circle which will also curtail the military judicial influence from the executive.
The Turkish government's incumbency of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, from the Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, (AK Party, or The Justice and Development Party), has been in power for 11 years. The Justice and Development party is considered politically as a pro-Islamic right wing conservative political government which has veered Turkey away from its post 1918 Kemalism (or Ataturkism) and Laicism secularism stance which has been embraced by the Western nations since the end of hostilities in the Great War of 1918 ushering the Ataturkism period of a post Ottoman Empire Turkish political and social culture, that was until the 2002 election, when, paradoxically, the Turkish pro-Islamic political wave swept aside the hitherto, Kemalism and Laicism of post World War One Turkey. In 2002, whilst the world was entering a new era of global terrorism since September 11, 2001, in Turkey, somewhat against the grain, Turkish democracy moved more to the Islamic rightwing and away from the Secularism of the Kemalism and Ataturkism era of over a century of Turkish political history. Erdogan, therefore, was to become the harbinger for an anti-Kemalism executive government structure, which was resisted not by the people, but, paradoxically, by the military themselves, with what would be considered as a failed coup attempt in 2016.
Militarily, the coup was overthrown by the people, politically, however, the seemingly glass house political structure of the present Turkish government was measured by a seemingly ineffectual executive political structure as demonstrably challenged by the recent 2016 attempted coup by some dissdent rank and file within the Turkish Military. In light of this political inefficiency and ineffectiveness, it would be considered pragmatic for a decisive executive structure to articulate down the vertical political process in a control and command process so as to minimise these political inefficiencies. Interpretively, therefore, it was considered important, to have a stronger executive presidency in which emergency powers may not need parliamentary accountability, which may be considered too time consuming and inefficient, particularly in a politically tenuous and fragile environment where the threat variable for the National Security for Turkey is at its highest level. In order to consolidate a fragile power base, it was necessarily to overhaul the political foundations from its very root, through the Constitution itself.
The Constitutional Referendum would be necessary to cement a destabilising political system a contagion being spread from the Middle Eastern Arab Spring virus threatening to infect Turkey from both within its National sovereign borders, its immediate neighbours, and rippling outwardly to include Europe and further. In the immediate outcome of the constitutional referendum, there will be a significant cultural impact upon the Turkish cultural landscape and one in which will be marked as the Erdogan era which will replace the hitherto Kemal Ataturk legacy, which was noted with Laicism and a democratic parliamentary republic process that was palatable to the Occidental world. The Parliamentary Republic of Turkey will be physically increased numerically, but, and the abolition of the office of the Prime Minister (as a member of the cabinet, and, therefore, as a member of the Executive), in actuality, institutional political power, however, for the Turkish National General Assembly (Parliament), will be significantly reduced, when a constitutional restructure will create a more powerful Executive Presidential system within the Turkish political structure. In short, the Presidential powers of the Turkish Devlet Baskani (President), will be increased at the expense of parliamentary accountability.
The ultimate outcome of the 2017 Constitutional Referendum, if the yes vote is successful, will see the Turkish military branch severely punished with limited political influence; and that, the Turkish Parliamentary Republic, whilst it will increase from the current number of 550, to 600, will, at the same time, limit the executive (cabinet) size, and scope, with the abolition of the office of the Prime Minister. The power vested by the Executive President, after the Constitutional Referendum will significantly be increased, which at present will mean that the office of Presidency will rest with the current President, whom has been noted as a pro-Muslim Brotherhood supporter, and, therefore, is an outright pro-Sunni Islamic President whom is anti laicism and anti-Kemalism.
At the hustings
The domestic campaign
The background for the Yes vote, for increasing the Executive Presidency within the Constitutional referendum, has been tempered with a firm pro-Sunni pan-Turkish fervour, as a direct reaction to the 2016 attempted coup, which was a domestic implosion stemming from two significant domestic crisis points, First, the over the border Syrian crisis, and, more directly,the subsequent influx of Syrian refugees, in the millions, attempting to migrate towards Europe, via, Turkey; and, since the collapse of the Ottoman empire, with the perpetual sore, since 1918, with the Kurdish Separatists, and Kurdish Nationalists, which has led to domestic violence, and, in a very likely direct conflict between the PKK, YPG, and inadvertently, an imminent clash with the Peshmerga (Kurdish forces).
Externalised from the immediate domestic crisis for the Turkish government, is the over the border military and political geo-political and geo-military confrontations, that would involve direct NATO and Russian confrontations, as a member of NATO, Turkey is the only NATO member nation which has had direct military contact with the Russian military with 24th November, 2015, shootdown of a Russian SU-24, by a Turkish F16. The Russian Turkish adverse relationship was further exacerbated with the Russian's ambassador to Turkey, His Excellency Andrei Karlov's assassination in late 2016, by a purportedly pro-Aleppo and therefore an IS sympathiser Assassin assigned as the Russian's Ambassador's personal protection security detail.
The Russians Syrian crisis campaign has been a line in the sand moment for Turkish-Russian relations, which has been on breaking point with the Russian foreign policy stance of supporting the Assad regime which is a pro-Shia Syrian Government platform, which has seen in Turkey an outright anti-Russian attitude, by the Turkish military and a pro-Sunni Erdogan administration. Although, in saying this Sunni leaning Islamic governmental stance by the Turkish government, the Erdogan administration has vehemently distanced themselves from the Imam Bagdadi's led Daesh, or Islamic State, although, the IS have declared themselves as a Sunni Caliphate, and, that the Turkish government has listed the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) as a Terrorist Organisation, the pro-Hezbollah, pro-Alawite, and, therefore, pro-Shia Syrian Assad regime, has been considered as the lesser of the two evils by the Russians. This foreign policy stance by the Russians according to Erdogan's AK government, as a line in the sand, in which has been crossed over by the Russians. and one in which will see an irreconciliable difference in foreign policy objectives by Turkey and Russia.
Oversea's campaign for the Turkish Constitutional Referendum.
The pan-Turkmanism was the global diaspora of the Turkman and to shore up domestic ascent the Turkish expatriate Turkmen citizenry with enfranchisement rights is still considered a significant voter group. The Constitutional Referendum for both the Yes and No campaign were in the hustings throughout Europe in order to shore up expatriate support for either the yes or no vote.
A mea Culpa for Pan Turkish Ottomanism.
On March 11, 2017, the Turkish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, was attempting to initiate a pro-yes rally campaign in Rotterdam, Netherlands, but, was prevented from entering the country for previous political comments made by the Minister, with regards to the alleged mistreatment of Turkish emigres as a non-EU and non-Schengen Aquis member within Europe, whose citizens continue to have settlement difficulties within the Netherlands. The Turkish Minister was forced detour his pro-yes campaign efforts to France instead.
Meanwhile, the Turkish admission into the European Union membership status has had a slight obstacle by way of the Erdogan anti-Laicism and pro-Islamic administration. The Islamic nation within NATO has also meant that differences of opinion will arise from time to time and certainly with the present Erdogan administration the NATO chain of command within the Turkish military circles has presented its own domestic unrest which has culminated with the 2016 coup attempt. What has started as a preventative measure by European nations of potential domestic divisions amongst the Turkish communities within Europe over the oncoming Constitutional Referendum may spark a Nationalism rally by the pan-Turkish movement globally in shoring support for ex-patriates against their respective European host nations anti-Turkish xenophobia. Perhaps, a period has arisen whereby the Turkish people within Europe may feel the chagrine ire of xenophobic Europeans of their Islamic culture and perhaps significantly, a mea culpa political crisis that will strain the multiculturalism harmonious homeostasis which has allowed for the international inclusion of many cultures and nationalities to freely move, integrate, and cooperate economically, culturally, and politically unrestrained by xenophobic resentment and presenting a security threat to their fellow citizenry.
With the banning of the Turkish Foreign Minister from the Netherlands, and the subsequent indignant reaction from Turkey's conservative government and most significantly by the Turkish people, globally, the supporters for Erdogan and the his blend of pan-Turkmanship patriotism and chauvinism has tempered a nascent revision of Kemalism politics, and, a reversion to Ottomanism and the granduer of the Ottoman Empire by the Turkmen being revisited by the current Erdogan administration.
The outcome of the April 16th, 2017, Constitutional Referendum, will confirm the present attitude of the Turkish people. If it is yes, then the nascent rise of the Ottomanism and pan Islamism of the Erdogan era has arisen to its zenith and the Kemal Ataturk Laicism and particurly for the ANZACs, in that the memory of the post-Gallipoli era will be undone.
History will recall the outcome of the April 16th, 2017, Turkey Constitutional Referendum event, as a focal point in the demise of the Laicism and the return of pan-Turkish Ottomanism or the retention of the status quo, of Parliamentary Republicanism, and the continuation of Kemal Ataturk Laicism?
By Tim Tufuga
20th March, 2017
Source:
1. Turkish Minister for Foreign Affairs, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mevl%C3%BCt_%C3%87avu%C5%9Fo%C4%9Flu
2. Turkish Constitutional Referendum, 2017, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017
3. Turkish Coup, 2016, wikipedia.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_d'%C3%A9tat_attempt
4. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wikipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan
5. Kemalism, wkipedia.com, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemalism
6. Turkey's downing of Russian plane, BBC.com, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581, 1st December, 2015
7. Andrei Karlov's assassination, news.com.au, http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/russian-ambassador-to-ankara-gunned-down-during-art-gallery-visit/news-story/8678761871fa963d07d62ca83dc8caf8, 20 December, 2016.
8. Tensions rise in Europe, telegraph.com.uk, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/erdogan-calls-turkish-families-have-five-children-bulwark-against/, 17th March, 2017.
Sunday, 12 March 2017
1830 Samoa: As a fifth great grandson of Malietoa Talavou Tonumaipe'a this is part of my story. Tim Tufuga
As confusing as it my seem, the microcosmic world of the Samoan political cosmos seems to be a microcosmic geo-political colonial history unfolding in a rapid, and seemingly inchoate history. One in which, it would have a direct impact upon the domestic political power struggles of the localised Chieftains.
From my personal note, it has a direct link with my personal life. In short, I am the fifth great grandson of Malietoa Talavou Tonumaipe'a, from the consummation from his second marriage.
My ancestral lineage is traced directly to Malietoa Talavou's second wife's descendants, mai le Maota o Pouesi, mai Sapapali'i, within Apia village ushering the Sa Tuiletufuga agnation line, which is directly linked to my late mother's father's heritage, Sa Tuiletufuga family of Apia.
As for the Tufuga side, this is the high chiefly title of Asau, Savai'i and are traditionally aligned with the Tupua line, which is a Ali'i title name in Asau and their fa'alupega. The current Samoan head of State is also a holder of the Tupua royal title.
Source:
wikipedia.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malietoa_Talavou_Tonumaipe%E2%80%99a
From my personal note, it has a direct link with my personal life. In short, I am the fifth great grandson of Malietoa Talavou Tonumaipe'a, from the consummation from his second marriage.
My ancestral lineage is traced directly to Malietoa Talavou's second wife's descendants, mai le Maota o Pouesi, mai Sapapali'i, within Apia village ushering the Sa Tuiletufuga agnation line, which is directly linked to my late mother's father's heritage, Sa Tuiletufuga family of Apia.
As for the Tufuga side, this is the high chiefly title of Asau, Savai'i and are traditionally aligned with the Tupua line, which is a Ali'i title name in Asau and their fa'alupega. The current Samoan head of State is also a holder of the Tupua royal title.
Source:
wikipedia.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malietoa_Talavou_Tonumaipe%E2%80%99a
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