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GoogleMore significantly, as a consequence of this recognition of an Independent Sovereign State of Kurdistan, will be the residualised influence for an eventual expansion of Iraqi Kurdistan to include South East Turkey and North West Iran as part of the ancient Greater Kurdistan nation.
In view of the potential success of the referenda in Iraq, the eventual path for a Iraqi Kurdistan nation, which will then simply be known as Kurdistan, will undoubtedly have an obvious perceived threat to neighbouring Turkey, and Iran, whose Kurdish populations are considered an even more imminent threat to Turkey and Iran than the cursory Islamic State Caliphate.
Understandably then, regardless of the outcome of the Referenda result, Turkey and Iran, have already gone to great lengths to forgo their traditional religious sectarian ill will, ie, Iranian Shi'ism, and Turkey's Sunni Islamic influence, in conducting joint political and allegedly joint military campaigns in having to deal with the Kurdish issue.
As it may seem obvious, the post-ISIS conflict will, inadvertantly, morph into a war between Kurdish self determination forces headed by the Peshmerga, and the Syrian Democratic Front made up almost entirely with Syrian Kurds in the Peoples Protection Unit (YPG). In many respects, the Kurdish conflict may be considered as separate civil wars within the respective nation states of Turkey, Syria and Iran as a consequence of the successful outcome of the September 25th, 2017, Iraqi Kurdish referenda yes vote for their Independence from Iraq.
Meanhile, by late August and in September, 2017, the Turkish Army have mobilised rapidly south of their border in a confluence campaign with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the Syrian Democratic Front (SDF). The SDF is a rebranding of the Syrian Kurdish militia also known as the Peoples Protection Unit or the YPG and, most importantly, the SDF is with the official Operation Inherent Resolve support by the US military, in an official Boots on the ground, involvement, in Syria.
SDF (YPG No longer considered a terrorist organisation by US renamed SDF)On August 29th, 2017, the most significant development in the war against IS has been the schism from within the Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) joint command with other NATO members, with regards to Turkey's involvement. Turkey is the nearest NATO member to the actual Syrian conflict. NATO's involvement in the conflict is through Operation Inherent Resolve in having to deal with Islamic State (IS).
What seemed to be a united force amongst NATO members to repel IS has, instead, turned against themselves. Turkey's military (Operation Euphrates Sword) is now in a direct firefight with the US military (SDF) in Syria.
Turkey's involvement in the conflict, initially with Operation Euphrates Shield, has now been renamed Op. Euphrates Sword. Operation Euphrates Sword had initially allowed for the Turkish forces to commit to NATO's Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) by sweeping southward from the Turkish border, and, to work toegther with the Syrian forces heading due North and West, the SDF and SAA would eventually sweep norwest, towards Deir Ez Zor, in a pincer operation, to nullify once and for all IS.
Unfortunately, for Turkish unique operational campaign, whilst the primary objective was IS, the secondary, was Tanzim Qa'edat Al-Jihad fi Bilad Al-Sham" or Al Qaeda within the Levant. Paradoxically, the Al Qaeda of the Levant are also fighting IS. The third objective in the Turkish operation whilst considered less important for now, is perhaps, considered the more important and visceral issue for the Turkish nation, dealing with the Kurdish insurgency.
The Peoples Protection Unit, or YPG, has been considered as a terrorist organisation by NATO and especially by Turkey. With a name change to SDF, the US military have felt less compelled to consider the YPG as a terrorist organisation and have instead joined forces with the SDF. The SDF is not a terrorist organisation according to the US military and therefore the US military will join forces with the Kurds moreso than with the SAA and much less with the Al Qaeda Syrian branch, now known as the Tanzim Qaeda Al-Jihad Fi Bilad Al-Sham. (Or the Al Qaeda in the Levant)
The so called friendly fire has come to a head this week with the an actual direct firefight between the Turkish military and the SDF which has led to an even more significant direct firefight between the US and Turkish forces within Syria. The contact may seem insignificant if it were not for the imporant fact is that Turkey is still a NATO member and this is the first ever incident of one NATO member has fired upon another NATO member in anger. Consequently, with the SDF clashing with the Turkish Army, America and Turkey, are now in direct conflict.
Changing geo-political dynamics.
Whilst the war against IS may seem to be winding down certain geo-political dynamics have fundamentally changed in recent months.
When, at the start of the year, it may seem that Turkey and Russia were about to engage in a direct confrontation after the shooting down of a Russian jet and more significantly with the assassination of the Russian Ambassador by an IS sympathiser. Instead, the recent incursion into Syria by the Turkish military through Operation Euphrates Shield, last year, and, now renamed Operation Euphrates Sword, since August 2017, has led to an accidental, and, now, an ongoing firefight, between the US military, how have now joined with the Kurds, within the SDF, as well as, having to face off with the residual remnants of the eschatologically prone IS. A lesser concern for the Turkish military is the Al Qaeda of the Levant who have been considered as a contingent concern for the time being.
Overall, as far as the Turkish political and military agenda is concerned, the problem of IS may be pale in comparison with an even greater probable conflict between Turkey and the Kurds not only within their own borders but also with the Syrian Kurds backed up by the Iraqi Kurds (Peshmerga) together with a significant US military presence within the SDF (YPG and US) which has become a double whammy for the Turks having to face their traditional enemy the Kurds and now an even more frightening prospect of having to face their most powerful NATO Ally the USA.
The September 25th Referenda, therefore, will either add impetus to the Greater Kurdistan political strategic objective of the regional Kurds, spearheaded by the Iraqi Peshmerga, the Turkish military's Operation Euphrates Sword may be considered much more than merely the extermination IS in killing two birds with one stone scenario. The Americans will now be having a diplomatic military alliance nightmare of having to deal with Erdogan and his Armed forces and the survivability of NATO or the demise of Erdogan himself as a consequence of Operation Euphrate Sword.
Tim Tufuga
30th August, 2017.
Source:
1. Southfront.Org https://southfront.org/us-soldiers-engage-turkish-backed-militants-in-firefight-in-northern-syira/ 29th August, 2017
2.Radio Free Europe, https://www.rferl.org/a/turkey-iran-joint-operation-kurdistan-workers-party-denials/28691051.html 22nd August, 2017
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017
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